Yanis Varoufakis knows who’s going to lose the war in Iran
This story originally appeared in Professor Glenn Diesen’s Substack on March 14, 2026. This shortened, edited version is shared here with permission.
The war in Iran, besides being dangerous, is also very interesting because it’s an example of asymmetric warfare. The US is obviously much more powerful, which is probably why there has been a significant amount of hubris: it entered this war with a lot of confidence and assumption of escalation dominance. Thus, we see that the Iranians are forced to fight with other means, including the ability to shut down the energy trade. And given that Iran also sees this as an existential threat—not just an effort to “liberate women” or something—they seem to be willing, or prepared, to shut down the global economy in order to avoid defeat.
I recently spoke with Professor Yanis Varoufakis, the former finance minister of Greece and a founder of DiEM25, the Democracy-in-Europe Movement, about where this war is heading and what impacts it is having on the global economy.
[Editor’s Note: The following transcript has been lightly edited for length and readability from the original full conversation, available here]
Glenn Diesen: Where do you see this war heading? Because it seems like everyone is betting everything on it, and I don’t see enough off-ramps for anyone.
Yanis Varoufakis: We must remember that this is not new. The United States has engaged in a series of asymmetric conflicts where it entered with immense confidence and exited, sometimes many many years later, with its wings clipped.
They invaded Afghanistan. It took them 20 years to be defeated, but they were defeated and they left with the Taliban—whom they had