by G. Elliott Morris | Nov 3, 2026 | Congress, elections, Opinion
Election Day is finally here, and the polls, early voting and general electoral dynamics are practically now all in agreement: You should expect a big “blue wave” in the midterm elections that is large enough to give Democrats the House, and might be large enough for them to flip the Senate. But how much faith should we put into that consensus?
Here’s a final look at our election forecasting model at FiftyPlusOne, MS NOW’s exclusive partner for polling data and election analysis, to prepare readers for the potential outcomes of the elections this year.
The House
Our final forecast gives Democrats a 99% chance of winning the House, with a median of 240 seats.
The forecast implies a national House vote margin for the Democrats of about nine percentage points, in line with our generic ballot average of D+8.7. This would be larger than the margin for either party in any House election since 2008. Though unlikely, if the polls understate Democrats modestly, they could approach the levels reached in the immediate aftermath of Watergate, when their vote margin lead was in the mid-teens.
Republicans would need the polls to be off by more than they were in 2016, 2020 or 2024 to change that.
Across those years, the polls overestimated Democrats on the House generic ballot by about 3.9 percentage points. Plugging that into our forecasting model, a poll miss that large still leaves Democrats with a projected 226 seats and an 82% chance of a majority. A miss the size of 2020’s — about 5 points — left them at 71%.
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‘Who decided this was a good idea?’: Reaction to Trump’s speech on Reflecting Pool
by Sharon Zhang | Nov 3, 2026 | Billionaires, Corruption, Elon Musk, News, SpaceX, Starlink, Ukraine
After Elon Musk ordered his company SpaceX to throttle Ukraine’s satellite internet service amid disagreements over its military operations earlier this month, the company suggested that Ukraine’s government upgrade its plan to avoid service interruptions, new reporting finds. The upsell was reported in The Atlantic, which found that SpaceX, which operates Starlink…
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by Jillian Kestler-D’Amours | Nov 3, 2026 | Canada, First Nations, Indigenous Peoples, News, Residential Schools, White Supremacy
It was 3:00 am when Doug George-Kanentiio first arrived at the Mohawk Institute Residential School in Brantford, Ontario, in 1967. He was 11 years old, and he would go on to spend 18 months at the abusive institution, which was Canada’s longest-running residential school. The notorious school operated for more than 140 years before it closed in 1970. “They weren’t places of learning…
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by Glenn Kessler | Nov 3, 2026 | elections, Opinion, White House
Consistency has never been President Donald Trump’s strong suit, but he has been consistent about one thing: If Republicans do poorly in Tuesday’s midterm elections, as polls suggest they will, he is prepared to blame Democratic cheating. Over and over, Trump has outlined — falsely — the ways he says Democrats will manipulate the vote.
On Aug. 5, for example, Trump was already warning of a rigged election in Michigan. Commenting on the vote count in the Democratic Senate primary, he wrote about Wayne County: “Don’t discount all of those fake mail-in ballots that will ‘surprisingly’ show up at the last moment. Get ready for another Rigged Election.”
Two months later, he released a video with a different message: “Vote early, vote by mail or vote in person on Election Day.” The caption went further: “Whether you vote early, absentee, by mail, or in-person, we must ‘swamp’ the Radical Left Dumocrats with massive turnout!”
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‘The law is clear’: Trump administration sets stage for challenges to Alaska election results
October 31, 2026 / 11:55
When I ran The Washington Post Fact Checker, I compiled scores of prewritten fact checks, totaling 30,000 words, based on my familiarity with things Trump said and his habit of uttering exaggerated, misleading or fully made-up statements.
So here, as a prebuttal, are five accusations that Trump will likely make after Election Day, based on a review of his election-related statements in speeches, news conferences and Truth Social posts in 2025 and 2026.
Myth No. 1: Late-counted mail ballots erased Republican victories
Media coverage of vote counting can create the impression that candidates are jockeying for position in real time when, in fact, the
by rimsha syed | Nov 3, 2026 | arms embargo, Dockworkers, Gaza, Genocide, Houston, Israel, labor, Maersk, Mask off, Mask Off Maersk, News Analysis, Organizing, Palestine, Protests, Strikes, Texas
On October 30, port workers in over 100 locations across the world stood in principled resistance to Israel’s ongoing genocide through an international strike meant to constrict the arms trade and physically halt munitions destined to be used in Palestine. From coast to coast, linking arms in the struggle against maritime transport has been a historic strategy to intervene in the material…
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